The Daily Post reports today the "game-changing" Conwy Economic Growth Strategy 2017-2027. We rely on the press as we cant find it anywhere on the revamped Conwy website.
The headline job creation (3500 jobs) figure fascinates us not least because its significantly higher than LDP aspiration (2350 over plan life to 2022) on which current allocations are based. We are all for aspiration and growth and would be delighted if it were delivered. Conwy would be much stronger, more prosperous with a more resilient economy if achieved.
We've been here before of course and the vagaries of wider economic forces, out-commuting, the limited westward route of North Wales metro, skills gaps, workforce flexibility, competing neighbours, the known unknown of Brexit/European and public funding levels will all influence success to a lesser or greater degree. Lets not forget too where to house an enlarged workforce and associated essential physical and social infrastructure to support economic growth. Delivery of and sustaining this level of employment and other growth will be extremely challenging.
For a bit of fun over lunch, we asked a quick question along the lines of "how much land might be needed to deliver 3500 new jobs". Using Government benchmarks on employment density we can get some basic analysis. We assume 3500 FTE jobs are created, if only to test the worst (or more appropriately best) case land requirement. We came up with the the following as a crude measure:
700 jobs in retail/restaurant/hospitality: (say 17.5m/FTE = 1.225ha required)
700 jobs in B8 warehousing/storage: (75m/FTE = 5.25ha)
700 jobs in B1a offices (50m/FTE= 3.5ha)
350 in R+D: (50m/FTE - 1.75ha)
350 in Small Business workspace (average 40m/FTE = 1.4ha)
350 in leisure concert/arts type/indoor attraction venues (Average 150m/FTE - 5.25ha)
350 in hotels - 5rooms @32m2 per room (160m2)/FTE =5.6 ha)
We discount the construction sector jobs as well as the potential tidal lagoon off Colwyn Bay. We haven't taken account of changes of use and redevelopment.
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So our back of a cigarette packet calculation suggests 22ha or thereabout of floorspace alone is required as accommodation for 3500new FTE jobs. Depending on mix and market that could vary wildly. To get a land requirement figure we multiplied the floorspace requirement by 2.5 allowing for access, parking, servicing, landscaping and the like.
A raw figure therefore looks somewhere in the region of 55 hectares. Add 20% for contingency and flexibility to provide a variety of sites? 66 ha then?
As a comparator, the LDP allocates 20ha over a longer period and has delivered nowhere near the level of new jobs it envisaged through development of allocations.
For those of you who know Llandudno, the area covered by Mostyn Champneys, Parc Llandudno and Asda combined is some 19 or so hectares.
Its a not unreasonable guestimate therefore that sites equivalent to 3.5 of those there developments combined developments will be needed, ready and developable within 10 years to deliver the Strategy. A massive challenge. Its not so much as a challenge but maybe a near impossibility Strategy designed for failure unless there is a very real and immediate sea change in understanding the amount of land need to be facilitated to achieve it and the civic leadership and public buy in to support it.
Elections on 04 May anyone?
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